According to the outgoing Commander of the Pakistani Navy, the Pakistani Navy is competing to fill the gaps in combat and technology as part of an unprecedented modernization effort. However, analysts have different opinions on whether this move can deter opponents. Admiral Zafar Mahmoud Abbasi gave a speech at the October 6th change of command ceremony, detailing the measures he has formulated. In the context of tense relations with India, he listed "combat readiness and offensive capability" as an important task for smaller forces in history.

In addition to restructuring the naval force structure, he also outlined procurement and development plans, some of which were mentioned for the first time or new details have been confirmed. This includes expanding the navy to over 50 warships (with more than double the number of main surface combatants to 20, and plans to add 6 large coastal patrol vessels). A Chinese submarine was obviously transferred for free to train the crew of eight Pakistani podded submarines. Develop high supersonic P282 shipborne anti-ship/land-based attack ballistic missile. Establish a naval research and development institute to cultivate local design talents (currently engaged in projects including Jinnah class frigates, Hangor class submarines, unmanned aerial vehicle jamming aircraft, directional energy weapons, underwater sonar monitoring and coastal defense systems, unmanned underwater vehicles, and unmanned aerial vehicles, etc.). Replace the P-3C Orion patrol aircraft with 10 modified commercial jets, with the first one already ordered. Purchase mid to high altitude, long-range unmanned aerial vehicles and 20 local gunboats, which will be put into use by 2025. When asked, the navy was unwilling to provide more details, despite the fact that these gunboats had previously been confirmed to be under design.

competitor

However, analysts are divided on whether these projects can prove sufficient deterrence against India, Pakistan's main competitor.

The author, analyst, and former Australian Defense Attach é in Islamabad, Brian Cloughley, claimed that "Pakistan's naval structure is almost impossible to reach the level of the Indian Navy. " "It cannot afford it. At best, its deterrent value will be entirely local. Although he described India's aircraft carriers as "significantly ineffective internationally and posing no threat to China," they are a "major threat" to the Pakistani navy when they exceed the range of shore based air forces. He also said that in the event of a conflict with the Indian Navy, Pakistan "will use all its assets to destroy it, and although the Indian Navy will suffer significant losses, the factor of attrition will be the determining factor. In contrast, the expansion of the Pakistani navy will "effectively suppress India's growing naval capabilities," said Mansour Ahmad, a senior researcher at the Islamabad International Centre for Strategic Studies. He pointed out that India has "long enjoyed the most decisive numerical advantage; this could undermine stability as it could encourage bellicosity and aggression, and exacerbate crisis instability." However, Ahmed added that Pakistan's modernization efforts would "help maintain a higher nuclear threshold," "enhance Pakistan's second strike capability by improving the survivability of its surface and submarine fleets," and provide significantly increased consumable capacity.

Similarly, Tom Waldwyn, a naval expert at the London based International Institute for Strategic Studies, stated that the expansion plan also has benefits. Of course, once the ship and submarine construction plan is realized, it will greatly enhance Pakistan's conventional maritime capabilities. By the end of this century, the frigate fleet will grow by half, and the size of the submarine fleet may double. The planned gunboats can release new frigates to carry out tasks that the Pakistani Navy is currently unable to perform frequently. Waldwin also said that due to China's participation, the Hanging Plan may be the most noteworthy. "Although the plan is to complete the local construction of the Han Ge submarine before this decade, restoring this industrial capability will be a huge effort, and I expect China's assistance in this regard will be crucial." However, one factor depends on whether Germany provides diesel engine export permits for submarines. The Production Department of Pakistan's Ministry of Defense, the Public Relations Department of the Navy, the German Embassy in Islamabad, and the German Federal Office for Economic Affairs and Export Control all refused to respond to inquiries from Defense News. It is currently unclear whether the project is undergoing a Chinese substitution project.

Weapons and platforms

However, announcing the signing of the unmanned aerial vehicle contract seems to be an official confirmation of the first reported transaction of China's Yonglong-2 in October 2018. Although it was photographed in Pakistan undergoing testing, it has never received formal contract confirmation.

Justin Bronk, an air force expert at the Royal United Services Institute think tank, said, "This may be one of the most effective options for Pakistan to acquire armed drones

The fact has proven that it is quite satisfactory when in service in the United Arab Emirates and other countries, and can carry various cheap and effective Chinese ammunition. Its sensor performance does not meet US standards, especially in terms of stability. However, considering the limited sales of MQ-9 and other similar US systems, and the fact that Israeli drones are rarely exported with recognized weapon capabilities, Wing Loong II may be the best choice, "Bronk explained.

Regarding which aircraft Pakistan will choose to replace the P-3C Orion fleet, Defense News inquired about the production status of the Navy and the Ministry of Defense, but did not provide details before the press release.