An expert said that with the lifting of the international arms embargo facing Iran, it is likely that Iran will begin purchasing armed drones, air defense systems, fighter jets, and tanks. Another analyst linked the passage of China's defense export legislation on October 28 to the expiration of the embargo. Iran had previously shown interest in Russia's Su-30 and Yak-130 jets, T-90 tanks, and S-400 air defense systems, but was prevented from purchasing such items under a multinational nuclear agreement. Iran's top priority is to improve the efficiency of its short-range missile capabilities; Russia's 9K720 Iskander missile will be at the top of the list, "said Abdullah Al Junaid, a strategic expert and political researcher in Bahrain, in an interview with Defense News. Although Iran needs an air force that can compete with its neighbors, Iran realizes that introducing Chinese air combat systems such as the J-10 cannot compensate for the quality gap needed with neighboring countries Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, let alone the US air and naval forces in the region Zhu Naide predicts that Iran will attempt to purchase missile guidance system technology, sensors and space monitoring systems, digital communication systems, and cybersecurity technology for both civilian and military purposes. He also said, "As for developing its naval power, Iran is ambitious in this regard, but submarines will be its top priority.

On October 18th, the 13 year old conventional arms embargo on Iran ended, and Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif praised the normalization of Iran's defense cooperation with the world as a victory for multilateralism and the cause of peace and security in our region. But where does this collaboration come from?

Turn towards Moscow

China and Russia will see Iran as the market they want to pursue. In terms of conventional systems, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and regular military, especially the Air Force (but not limited to the Air Force), have aging systems delivered in the 1970s and 1990s, "said Douglas Barrie, a senior researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies specializing in military aerospace. Barry said in an interview with Defense News, "Iran will seek defensive capabilities in defending against air strikes and airstrikes, so more capable surface to air missiles, combat aircraft (obviously expensive), long-range air to ground weapons, and anti-ship weapons - these types of weapons will bring potential improvements. Mohammad Al Kainani, a military affairs researcher and defense analyst at the Cairo based Arab Forum for Iran Policy Analysis, added: "Iran is primarily interested in Russia's Su-30 fighter jets, especially the latest version of the S-30SME, advanced training and light attack aircraft Yak-130, and may request medium tactical fighters such as the MiG-35, coastal defense systems equipped with supersonic air defense systems -90P-MS, and main battle anti tank -400. In 2016, Russia announced that it would provide Tehran with the license and manufacturing capability for the T-90 MBT upon the end of the embargo.

Iranian Defense Minister General Brig Amir Khatami visited Moscow at the end of August this year to attend the national organization's "Army 2020" defense exhibition and hold talks with Russian defense officials, "Barry said. He pointed out that this marks Iran's shift towards Russia to adjust its equipment capital.

Barry explained that with limited financial resources, Iran may attempt to upgrade its existing systems by improving weapon performance to fill short-term gaps, "but in the medium term, it will have to start considering replacing many platforms on its own.

Beijing relations

At the same time, if China decides to provide Iran with major defense capabilities, it will have to act cautiously. China realizes that its interests may be threatened if it loses the ability to maintain balance with Iran and its regional trading partners (Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). By announcing new arms control legislation, it sends a message to the United States that it recognizes its international responsibility and that the strategic agreement with Iran will not harm international security, "Al Junaid explained.